Gloomy predictions of scientists. Heat waves will lead to mass deaths
Scientists have painted a grim picture of a future in which a sharp rise in temperatures is accompanied by an equally sharp rise in deaths caused by heat waves. Researchers are sounding the alarm that it will be a major problem in the coming decades.
New research published on „PLOS Medicine” have given the first solid predictions of howób The increasingly frequent heat wavesów will affect future mortality rates. Researchers are sounding the alarm that on someóhe heatwaves may increase heat casualties in some areas by as much as 2,000 percent.
As temperatures rise, the risk of overheating increases. It is getting worse róalso air quality. Last month alone, 70 deaths were reported in Montrealóin, whichóre have been linked to air temperatures. Climate change is causing these types of heat waves, such as this one, która has hit Europe this year, are increasingly common.
– Alarmingly, studies show that it is highly likely that the frequency and intensity of heat wavesów will increase. However, we have little evidenceów on their impact on mortality globally – said Antonio Gasparrini of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, coóhe author of the publication.
Gasparrini, along with colleagues, created a database of daily temperature measurements and mortality rates. The base begins in early 1984 and ends in 2015, and has been run for 412 communities worldwide. The numbers collected were used to model mortality rates from 1977 until the end of the current century. The researchers adopted several scenarios and depending on them, the results changed.
In the case of a scenario in whichórym nothing changes, forecasts are rather grim. – This is the largest study on the projected effects ofów heat wavesów as a result of global warming. The results of the analyses suggest that they could dramatically increase mortality, especiallyólnie in densely populated tropical and subtropical countries – noted Gasparrini.
Going by the assumptions of the same scenario, by 2080 the number of deathsów caused by the heat in Colombia could increase 30 times. For Brazil and the Philippines, the number is only slightly smaller, as it indicates an increase of about 10 to 20 times. Govówn cities in the U.S. and Australia may be struggling to cope with a fourfold increase in mortality due to heatów.
The same models róalso suggest that these hypothetical numbers need not be so high. – The good news is that if we reduce gas emissionsóin greenhouse gases in the scenarios projected in the Paris Agreement, projected mortality rates would be lower – explained Gasparrini.
But even under the best-case scenario, in which theórima all countries adhere to the Paris Agreement, we can expect a doubling of the number of heat victimsóIn someórych tropical and subtropical countries.
Of course, to such heatów can be at least partially prepared. Governments can create infrastructure to provide cooler living and working conditions. Health care can adjust to more frequent interventions caused by heat stress. Individuals can be more aware of the dangers and modify behavior.
Such measures would have a significant impact and reduce the number of casualties, but realistically, the government’s actionsów are very doubtful. And even if they actually occur, with serious opóForeshadowing. Improved health care programs and changes in urban infrastructure, if they occur, will certainly not be widespread. Developing countries or nations with noówational distribution dóbr may simply not have the resourcesów to reduce the impact of heat wavesów.
Climate change will be most pronounced in China. In a separate study, whichóre appeared in "Nature Communications", MIT researchers suggest that the lowland PóNorth China may encounter heat wavesów, whichóre make the area uninhabitable. There are about 400 million living in the areaów people. Heat wavesów will certainly cause migrations from these regionsów.
This is agricultural land, and water evaporating from the canalóin irrigation will worsen the local greenhouse effect, adding pó³ degree to air temperature. High humidity combined with high temperatures makes cooling almost impossible, as sweat can no longer evaporate under these conditions.